For much of the past fifteen years, India–Bangladesh relations were a model of South Asian bilateral cooperation: steady trade growth, infrastructure connectivity projects, shared water management, and a shared understanding on security. That comfort is now being tested.

The departure of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 and the installation of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus introduced a new variable into New Delhi's calculations. Yunus has been careful in his public statements about India, but several figures in his administration have expressed views on the Citizenship Amendment Act, the National Register of Citizens, and the treatment of Hindu minorities in India that have created diplomatic friction.

India's strategic concern is simpler: Bangladesh sits astride critical trade and transit routes to the northeast, and any instability or tilt toward China or Pakistan would carry direct security implications. New Delhi is watching, and recalibrating.